PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:What JD Vance has said about U.S. foreign policy amid the war in Ukraine

Former President Donald Trump has named Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate. Below is PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centera look at what Vance has said about some of the major international issues he and Trump would have to deal with if they win in November.

U.S. aid for Ukraine

Vance said at the Munich Security Conference in February that the United States' ability to support Ukraine's ongoing battle to fend off Russia's invasion is "limited" due to America's weapons manufacturing capacity. He said it wouldn't be realistic for the U.S. to continue providing the same level of assistance to Ukraine moving forward.

"Given the realities that we face, the very real constraints in munitions and manpower, what is reasonable to accomplish and when do we actually think we're going to accomplish it? And my argument is, look, I think what's reasonable to accomplish is some negotiated peace," Vance said. "This will end in a negotiated peace. The question is when it ends in a negotiated peace and what that looks like."

At the conference, Vance skipped a meeting between a group of fellow U.S. senators and Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy.

In an opinion piece published in the New York Times in April, Vance said Ukraine should adopt a defensive rather than offensive strategy.

"By committing to a defensive strategy, Ukraine can preserve its precious military manpower, stop the bleeding and provide time for negotiations to commence. But this would require both the American and Ukrainian leadership to accept that Mr. Zelenskyy's stated goal for the war —a return to 1991 boundaries— is fantastical," Vance wrote. "The White House has said time and again that it can't negotiate with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. This is absurd. The Biden administration has no viable plan for the Ukrainians to win this war. The sooner Americans confront this truth, the sooner we can fix this mess and broker for peace."

Russia began a full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. NATO has called the Russian Federation "the most significant and direct threat to Allies' security," and the White House has said "the security of Ukraine is integral to the security of the Euro-Atlantic region and beyond."

European security

Vance said at the same security conference that he believes Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security, rather than relying on the United States as the leading member of the NATO defense alliance.

"We need Europe to play a bigger share of the security role, and that's not because we don't care about Europe… it's because we have to recognize that we live in a world of scarcity," Vance said, adding that he felt he'd observed in Europe "the idea of the American superpower that can do everything all at once."

Vance said former President Trump had issued a wakeup call to European countries that they need to spend more of their own domestic budgets on defense.

"But it's not just about money spent. How many mechanized brigades could Germany field tomorrow? Maybe one. The problem with Europe is that it doesn't provide enough of a deterrence on its own because it hasn't taken the initiative in its own security. I think that the American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy," Vance said.

In May, Vance drew criticism for praising one of Europe's most far-right leaders, Hungary's authoritarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, a NATO partner who is also close with Putin.

Vance told "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan that the U.S. "could learn from" some of Orbán's controversial policies, including how to eliminate what he views as a left-wing bias at American universities.

Days earlier, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had criticized some Republicans for praising Orbán, warning on the Senate floor against emulating a leader who has maintained friendly relationships with U.S. adversaries.

"This isn't where America should be taking our foreign policy cues," McConell said. "Hungary stands at the crossroads of three powers bent on undermining our security and prosperity, and the Orbán government is modeling what not to do in the face of these challenges."

Shifting focus to Asia

Vance said the United States should shift its strategic focus away from Ukraine and Europe and toward Asia.

"No, I don't think that we should pull out of NATO, and no, I don't think that we should abandon Europe. But yes, I think that we should pivot," Vance said at the Munich conference. "The United States has to focus more on East Asia. That is going to be the future of American foreign policy for the next 40 years, and Europe has to wake up to that fact."

He said the U.S. doesn't "make enough munitions to support a war in Eastern Europe, a war in the Middle East, and potentially a contingency in East Asia."

In:
• Ukraine
• Donald Trump
• Foreign Policy
• Viktor Orban

Haley Ott

Haley Ott is the CBS News Digital international reporter, based in the CBS News London bureau.

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