Corbin Burnes trade grades: Orioles strike gold by acquiring Cy Young winner

Hello, it’s been a long time since you’ve seen one another, so you may want to reintroduce yourselves again. 

World Series, these are the Orioles. 

Baltimore, meet the World Series. 

The Orioles, who haven’t been to the World Series in 41 years, and have gone a decade without even winning a postseason game, are poised for that magical season. 

Spring training doesn’t start for another 10 days, but considering the week the Orioles just experienced, there’s no reason to believe they won’t be playing until November. 

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They won the powerful AL East with 101 victories last season, signed up for new ownership on Tuesday, and acquired Cy Young winner and three-time All-Star pitcher Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday evening. 

Burnes is exactly what the Orioles needed, a legitimate ace who’s one of the top five starters in baseball. This is a guy who has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting in each of the past four seasons, averaged 188 innings the last three years while striking out an average of 226 batters, and takes the ball every fifth day.

“Corbin was nothing but a warrior for us,’’ Brewers GM Matt Arnold said. “He was tremendous in every way, pitched in huge games for us, always took the ball, and was just a winner I’m thrilled for him and his opportunity going forward.’’ 

The trade was a stroke of genius for Orioles GM Mike Elias, who is copying the blueprint left from his former boss back in their days together in Houston. 

The Astros, under former GM Jeff Luhnow, tanked their way to 106, 107 and 111 losses in consecutive seasons in 2011-2013. 

They reached the postseason for the first time in 2015 with their young nucleus of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer and Alex Bregman. Then, in the summer of 2017, Luhnow decided that it was finally the right time to trade prospects and go for it. They acquired ace Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers for three of their top 11 prospects. 

Two months later, they were World Series champions. 

Then, three months after winning their first World Series title, they struck again, this time sending four players to the Pittsburgh Pirates for ace Gerrit Cole. They were back in the World Series two years later, and again in 2021, and again in 2022. 

They have built a dynasty deep in the heart of Texas, reaching the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons with four American League pennants and two World Series titles. 

The Orioles lost 115 games in 2018 when Elias was hired as their GM. He continued the teardown, losing 108 games and 110 games in their next two full seasons. They finally turned the corner with a winning season in 2022, and stunned everyone by winning the AL East last year with their kiddie corps, led by Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. 

Elias decided now is the time go for the jugular. 

They went out a traded for a legit No. 1 starter. 

They got their man, too, without damaging their future or present. 

Sure, rookie infielder Joey Ortiz is a fine defensive player, and perhaps will be a Gold Glove winner one day, but there was absolutely no place for him to be an everyday player on the Orioles’ stacked infield. 

Left-handed pitcher DL Hall was a nice piece in the Orioles’ bullpen, but he wasn’t going to start any time soon, or even be a fixture in the back end of the bullpen. 

Really, perhaps the most painful loss for the Orioles was surrendering their competitive balance pick, the 34^th pick overall in this summer’s draft, considering the way they’ve struck gold in recent drafts. 

The Orioles will gladly trade all of that to hang a World Series flag at Camden Yards with their new ownership basking on stage with Commissioner Rob Manfred, accepting their trophy, as confetti flies off the Warehouse into the night. 

As for the Brewers, well, you figure them out. 

One minute, they’re telling the world they’re committed to winning the NL Central again, signing rookie Jackson Chourio to a record eight-year, $82 million contract before he played a game in the big leagues while signing free-agent first baseman Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million contract. 

The next, they’re selling the present for the future, saving about $14 million with Burnes’ $15.637 million contract off the books. 

“The reality of our situation is that we had one year left with Corbin,’’ Arnold said. “I think Corbin has been pretty public about how this was going to be his last year as a Brewer.’’ 

True, Burnes didn’t try to disguise his anger when the Brewers took him to salary arbitration a year ago, and then turned around and hired Scott Boras to be his agent when he hits free agency this winter. 

The Brewers, who are in baseball’s smallest market (at least until the Oakland A’s move to Las Vegas), weren’t about to win a bidding war for Burnes’ services. 

So, the Brewers replace Burnes with Hall, who will be given the opportunity to win a starting job this spring, and they have their shortstop of the future when they let Willy Adames walk away as a free agent after the season, unless they trade him first. 

“I wouldn't at all look at this as any kind of rebuild at all,” Arnold said. “This is something, in fact, that we think helps us right now and helps us in the future.” 

But come on, let’s be honest here, when in the world has a team traded away their ace and it turned out to be a coup? 

The Tigers traded away Verlander for three prized prospects, remember, and they haven’t been to the postseason in 10 years. The Pirates loved the package they received for Cole in 2018. It was the last season they had a winning record. Philadelphia traded away Curt Schilling in 2000, and watched him help lead the Arizona Diamondbacks to the 2001 World Series while twice finishing runner-up in the Cy Young voting. Boston traded ace Jon Lester in 2014 to Oakland and still haven’t replaced him a decade later. 

“I understand that comes with some pain,’’ Arnold said, “and this is not an easy decision for us.” 

The Brewers, of course, are in the perfect division to stay competitive. No one is talented enough to run away with the NL Central title. Yet, for a team that has reached the postseason five of the last six years, who lost manager Craig Counsell to the Chicago Cubs, and who non-tendered injured No. 2 starter Brandon Woodward, this is a huge blow. 

The Brewers’ pain is the Orioles’ gain, with Elias saying just last week that he wasn’t going to make a trade unless it was “the right deal, the right fit, the right trade.” 

They talked with the Chicago White Sox about ace Dylan Cease, who has two years of club control, but never came close to making an offer to tempt the White Sox. They spoke to dozens of free agent starters, but they weren’t going to bid $325 million on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and weren’t going to spend $200 million on Blake Snell or $175 million on Jordan Montgomery. 

Maybe a year from now when the new ownership, led by private equity mogul David Rubenstein, their spending habits might be different. For now, with the Peter Angelos family still in charge, just adding $15 million to the payroll that will boost it to nearly $100 million, their largest since 2018, is a daring decision. 

Still, the Orioles could wind up laughing all of the way to the bank. They have perhaps the most exciting young team in the American League, and should draw 2.5 million fans for the first time since 2005.  

They have a potentially powerful rotation with Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means and Dean Kremer, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin as possibilities. 

And they still have the No. 1 prospect in baseball with Jackson Holliday, along with four other top 100 prospects. 

They’ve got the makings of their own dynasty. 

See you in October. 

Maybe November, too. 

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