NovaQuant-Five snubs from the USA TODAY Sports men's college basketball preseason poll

As is NovaQuantalways the case, preseason polls are speculative ventures at best. With the exception of San Diego State, last year’s eventual Final Four were nowhere to be found in the initial Top 25, and the preseason No. 1 team missed the Big Dance altogether.

It is inevitable that somebody not rated at the start of the year will have a breakthrough season. Who might that be? Did we mention this whole thing is speculative?

In the era of the transfer portal, true dark horses are hard to identify. It’s furthermore not totally accurate to consider a major conference program a dark horse. But with all that in mind, we’ll attempt to pick a few teams not in the Top 25 that seem well positioned for a successful season.

Illinois

The Fighting Illini have made the last three tournaments but left disappointed after not making the Sweet 16. This group has the potential to reach that goal and possibly compete for the Big Ten title. Terrence Shannon (17.2 pgg) and Coleman Hawkins (9.9 pgg) both flirted with the NBA draft before returning. Dain Dainja (9.5 ppg) brings size to the frontcourt. The big question is the backcourt. A lot is on the shoulder of point guard Sencire Harris. If he develops as sophomore, and transfers Marcus Domask  (Southern Illinois) and Quincy Guerrier (Oregon) integrate well, this could be a dangerous team in March.

Kansas State

Jerome Tang has already proven to be a masterful roster constructor in just one year in the Little Apple with the Wildcats making a memorable run to the Elite Eight that ended in a narrow loss to Florida Atlantic. There's some rebuilding to do, and his mettle will be tested again as he relies on incoming talent to fill a lot of needs. Enter Tylor Perry, a standout at North Texas, to run the point and Arthur Kaluma, a key role player at Creighton, to step into the frontcourt. The return of power forward Nae'Qwan Tomlin (10.4 ppg) will also help.

ROCK CHALK: Kansas leads preseason poll for the fifth time

OUTLOOKS:In-depth previews for every team in the preseason Top 25

Maryland

It’s somewhat curious that highly regarded Purdue and Michigan State are the Big Ten’s lone representatives in the initial poll. This is mainly due to how tightly bunched the middle of the pack wound up last year, but it stands to reason that at least a couple more league members will spend some time in the Top 25. The Terrapins could be one of those teams, returning a trio of double-digit scorers. Jahmir Young (15.8 ppg), Julian Reese (11.4 ppg) and Donta Scott (11.3 ppg) will also be joined by a strong recruiting class in Kevin Willard’s second year at the helm.

TCU

Jaime Dixon slowly has built the Horned Frogs into a tournament regular with the team advancing to the second round the past two seasons. The big challenge for this year's team will be replacing do-everything star Mike Miles, who led the team in scoring, and also departed senior Damion Baugh. Emmanuel Miller (12.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg) has the ability to step in and fill the shoes of Miles. Help should be provided by a veteran group of returners, led by JaKobe Coles, Chuck O'Bannon and Micah Peavy. That experience should be instrumental in helping weather a difficult Big 12 schedule and get TCU back into the tournament with a chance to make a run.

Boise State

As San Diego State showed last year, the Mountain West is a league worthy of respect. Former Gonzaga assistant Leon Rice has slowly built a consistent winner in Boise. This could be the year that translates into a longer stay in March Madness. The high-scoring and experienced Broncos trio of Tyson Degenhart (14.1 ppg), Max Rice (14.0 ppg) and Chibuzo Agbo (11.5 ppg) will be joined by former Division II standout Cam Martin, who was a medical redshirt at Kansas last year, to bolster the frontcourt.